Caucus Carnival starts Feb 5th

Yesterday we wrote about Time Magazine’s muck up of the outcome of Colorado caucus. In reply we got some suggestions, some tips, and some sermons.

In one of the replies, the Inside Edge was reminded via email last night that the caucuses to be held on February 5th could bring some very interesting developments or at least unintended consequences.

It’s wholly appropriate that this year Mardi Gras or Carnival starts on February 5th, as well. Because this year the caucus contest in Colorado could look like  Carnival. Minus the nudity.   

Part of the problem and part of the charm of the caucus system is that the party activists tend to dominate the decisions that come out of the caucus system.

And they like it that way.

It means they remain big fish in a small pond. But with interest sparked by two contentious presidential races and the promise of a presidential straw poll, the caucuses won’t necessarily be dominated by the activists this year. They’ll be dominated by amateur, passionate, inexperienced dogmatists, whose creed is the creed of the candidate they represent.

The question that’s most intriguing there is whether that was intended or not when the parties decided to move up the caucus dates.

“I don’t think there was any farsightedness in the decision to move up,” says one Denver Republican. “I think it more a reaction to the intensity of the race this year than anything else.”

Another GOP activist agreed: “I’m not sure they really thought through what this might mean. Sure it’s a possibility to expand the base a little, but turnout in other states for primaries has been down.”          

It hasn’t been down really so much as disappointing considering expectations were so high. Turnout in the Michigan Republican primary this year was barely 20% of registered voters, but that matched turnout in 2000, the last presidential election without an incumbent. On the Democrat side Michigan turnout was a joke because Michigan was punish for moving up their primary. And South Carolina turnout was down in comparison with expectations.

But the real number to pay attention to is in Iowa. They also held a caucus (although Iowa, unlike Colorado, had delegates at stake) and there turnout was up about 40%.

So we’d have to figure that turnout in Colorado for caucuses will be up 50% or more. Why? Because while nothing binding will be happening in Colorado, a lot will be happening around the country. That will give voters the novel idea that they can participate in a process that means something in regards to the presidential elections, a prospect Iowans have always enjoyed. Hence logically, turnout should be up higher for Colorado than for Iowa.

Inside Edge predicts it will end up Romney, Paul, McCain, Huckabee, Giuliani on February 5th in the GOP with the rationale that the Romney and Paul campaigns have shown a real knack for devoting resources to states that don’t matter that much, while the other professional political campaigns will go hunting somewhere else for delegates.

On the Dem side it will be Hillary, Obama, Edwards.  

And that could have lasting effects on the local parties as they deal with a huge influx of new people into the local caucus process. People who may not be supporting the eventual nominee or even local party issues will now be plugged into the system.

And that could make the parties more of a carnival than ever before, intended or not.