Dueling Crank, Rayburn polls show each in second place

Who's Doug Lamborn's worst nightmare in the CD-5 GOP primary? The answer depends on which opposition campaign you ask.

The campaigns of Jeff Crank and Bentley Rayburn each released polls this week showing their candidate in second place to Lamborn, the incumbent U.S. Representative.

An internal Crank campaign poll released Thursday shows Lamborn leading with 39.78 percent. Crank placed second with 30.74 percent, while Rayburn received 12.43 percent.

The poll was conducted among 1,698 likely CD-5 GOP primary voters between May 3 and May 6 by CC Advertising, the press release stated. Because of the large sample size, the margin of error is virtually zero, said Crank deputy manager Amber O'Connor.

The Crank campaign compared these latest numbers to a survey of 300 "very likely" CD-5 GOP primary voters that was commissioned by the campaign in August, 2007 -- just after Crank entered the 2008 CD-5 race.

While Lamborn and Rayburn hovered near 40 percent and 12 percent, respectively, in both the August 2007 and May 2008 polls, Crank showed a 9 percent improvement in May from the August survey, in which he polled just 21 percent.

"The numbers and momentum are hard to deny," said Crank manager Alan Philp in the release.

The Rayburn campaign shot back with poll results of their own showing Rayburn polling better than Crank would in a head-to-head matchup with Lamborn, though Lamborn held a sizable lead over both opponents in a potential three-way race.

The poll, conducted by Wilson Research Strategies among 400 likely CD-5 GOP primary voters between April 20-21, showed Lamborn leading in a three-way race with 42 percent; Crank polled 18 percent, while Rayburn got 17 percent.

The survey also found Lamborn beating Rayburn in a one-on-one matchup 42 percent to 32 percent; Lamborn was favored over Crank 46 percent to 27 percent. The margin of error was 4.9 percent.

Rayburn manager Mike Hesse said the numbers - especially the one-on-one matchups - were encouraging as Rayburn doesn't yet have as much name recognition as Lamborn or Crank.

The poll found Rayburn's name recognition at about 66 percent; Crank's name recognition was in the 80-90 percent range, while Lamborn was known by 99 percent of those polled, Hesse said.

"Crank has a little bit of an opportunity (to grow), but we have the greatest," Hesse said.