2008 primary preview: State House races

Colorado has 15 competitive state House primaries tomorrow, though some are more competitive than others.

The most interesting and competitive Democratic races to watch are in the 6th and 8th state House Districts, while the 15th state House District race between Douglas Bruce and Mark Waller headlines the GOP primary battles.

Even less-competitive races are still intriguing: Take the HD-6 GOP race between Palestinian activist Rima Sinclair and Orthodox Jewish blogger Joshua Sharf, where foreign policy has become a major issue in a state legislative race.

2nd STATE HOUSE DISTRICT (Democrats)

Incumbent: State Rep. Mark Ferrandino (D-Denver)

Candidates:

• Mark Ferrandino: State representative from Denver

• James Johnson, Jr.: Former Eagle County Commissioner and activist from Denver

Overview: Ferrandino, appointed as state representative by a vacancy committee in September of 2007, should easily win this race. Johnson, the only African-American ever elected Eagle County Commissioner, hasn’t run much of a campaign.

What to look for: Ferrandino to be elected to a full term in November.

6th STATE HOUSE DISTRICT (Democrats)

OPEN SEAT: House Speaker Andrew Romanoff (D-Denver) is term-limited

Candidates:

• Liz Adams: Former legislative policy analyst and state Senate staffer from Denver

• Lois Court: Fomer legislative aide and former City of Denver department head from Denver

• Josh Hanfling: Entrepreneur and philanthropist from Denver

Overview: Along with the 8th House District, the 6th is the most exciting – and unpredictable – state House primary in the state. Hanfling has raised $140,000, more than double what Adams and Court have raised. Adams should poll well in her home neighborhood of Washington Park. Court has the most political experience of the three, having managed two City Council races and Andy Kerr’s successful campaign for state representative. Constitutional questions have emerged as surprisingly important issues in the district.

What to look for: With turnout expected to be low, it may come down to who has the best GOTV campaign. Both Adams and Court have been out-working Hanfling going door-to-door, insiders say.

6th STATE HOUSE DISTRICT (Democrats)

OPEN SEAT: House Speaker Andrew Romanoff (D-Denver) is term-limited

Candidates:

• Rima Sinclair: Professional translator and activist from Denver

• Joshua Sharf: Blogger and radio talk show co-host from Denver

Overview: The battle between Palestinian activist Sinclair and Orthodox Jewish blogger Sharf makes this the most intriguing state legislative primary of the year (though given HD-6’s Democratic leanings, hardly the most important). Sinclair was unexpectedly placed on the ballot unopposed during the Denver County GOP Assembly; Sharf, piqued by past comments Sinclair made criticizing Israel, petitioned onto the ballot to stop her from getting the nomination without a fight.

What to look for: A Sharf victory. Sinclair’s assembly win was due more to happenstance than a reflection of political strength, and being seen as anti-Israel is problematic -- to say the least -- in the heavily Jewish 6th District.

8th STATE HOUSE DISTRICT (Democrats)

OPEN SEAT: State Rep. Rosemary Marshall (D-Denver) is term-limited

Candidates:

• Beth McCann: Deputy attorney general in charge of civil litigation and employment law from Denver

• Matt Bergles: Former high school teacher and Democratic activist from Denver

• Cindy Lowery: Health care attorney and former Denver Young Democrats president from Denver

Overview: One could make a valid argument for any one of the three candidates winning next Tuesday. McCann has high-level establishment support, as well as the financial edge. Bergles has significant support among the local party establishment. Lowery has earned backing from state Rep. Mark Ferrandino (D-Denver) and will attract the younger vote.

What to look for: A nail-biter. Several insiders offered the same quip that the race will be 34-33-33, but no one can predict who ends up with the 34 percent.

9th STATE HOUSE DISTRICT (Democrats)

OPEN SEAT: State Rep. Alice Borodkin (D-Denver) is term-limited

Candidates:

• Joe Miklosi: Colorado state Director of Progressive Majority and former Democratic State House Caucus director from Denver

• Paul Rosenthal: Denver Community Corrections Board Vice-Chair and former Denver Democratic Party secretary from Denver

Overview: Miklosi has the backing of Borodkin and outgoing House Majority Leader Alice Madden. Insiders say he’s a more effective campaigner than Rosenthal and predict he’ll pull out the win.

What to look for: A Miklosi victory.

15TH STATE HOUSE DISTRICT (Republicans)

Incumbent: State Rep. Douglas Bruce (R-Colorado Springs)

Candidates:

• Douglas Bruce: State representative and former El Paso County commissioner from Colorado Springs

• Mark Waller: Air Force Major (reserves) and attorney from Colorado Springs

Overview: Insiders predict Bruce will win, though most expect it to be close. By far the most polarizing figure in the statehouse, Bruce’s 2008 legislative session was a fiasco: kicking a photographer on the House floor was just one of a string of antics that embarrassed the GOP House leadership and lowered his political clout to about zero. But his principled stands on streamlining government, while unpopular in the Statehouse, have a sympathetic audience back in his district. Waller has his share of endorsements – the Pikes Peak Firearms Coalition and House Minority Leader Mike May, among others -- but he’s done little to define himself besides making sure people know that he’s not Douglas Bruce.

What to look for: The primary is a referendum on Bruce. His quixotic tilts at Statehouse routines have won him few friends at the State Capitol and a slew of bad headlines, but it plays very well in the 15th District. But can those sympathies override the bad memories of Bruce’s legislative session earlier this year?

17TH STATE HOUSE DISTRICT (Republicans)

OPEN SEAT: State Rep. Stella Garza Hicks (R-Colorado Springs) is not seeking re-election

Candidates:

• Kit Roupe: Former El Paso County Commission candidate and activist from Colorado Springs

• Sheila Anne Hicks: Volunteer lobbyist for the Colorado Cross-Disability Coalition

Overview: Roupe is expected to easily grab the nomination over Hicks. Roupe, who at the El Paso County assembly won 66 percent to Hicks’ 34 percent, has been much more visible than Hicks and has captured key endorsements.

What to look for: A double-digit win by Roupe. She has run an active -- if low-key -- campaign, while Hicks hasn’t done much since the assembly.

22nd STATE HOUSE DISTRICT (Democrats)

Incumbent: State Rep. Ken Summers (R-Lakewood)

Candidates:

• Vince Chowdhury: Jefferson County School Board member from Littleton

• Camille Ryckman: Former schoolteacher from Lakewood

Overview: Chowdhury’s name remains on the ballot even though he has suspended campaigning after pleading guilty to assault charges for slapping his teen daughter. Key Democrats, such as House Speaker Andrew Romanoff, threw their support behind Ryckman following Chowdhury’s guilty plea.

What to look for: How many HD-22 Democrats pay attention to the news. That’ll determine how large Ryckman’s margin of victory will be.

24th STATE HOUSE DISTRICT (Democrats)

OPEN SEAT: State Rep. Cheri Jahn (D-Wheat Ridge) is term-limited

Candidates:

• Sue Schafer: Former Colorado Department of Education curriculum director and activist from Wheat Ridge

• Dave Ruchman: RTD Board member and former Colorado Department of Revenue hearing officer from Lakewood

Overview: Both have been campaigning energetically but respectfully and have similar fundraising numbers.

What to look for: A close race.

30th STATE HOUSE DISTRICT (Democrats)

OPEN SEAT: State Rep. Mary Hodge (D-Brighton) is term-limited

Candidates:

• Dave Rose: Former Brighton mayor and elementary school principal from Brighton

• Mark Nicastle: Adams County public-safety officer from Hudson

Overview: Both draw their support from their careers: Nicastle has been endorsed by police and firefighters groups; Rose has the support of teachers’ unions. Rose’s fundraising is double that of Nicastle.

What to look for: Insiders predict a Nicastle victory. Turnout will likely decide the race: low turnout favors Nicastle, who has reliable support from the law enforcement community. High turnout favors Rose, who as a former principal has high name recognition. So far, turnout appears to be low.

 

30th STATE HOUSE DISTRICT (Democrats)

Incumbent: House Minority Leader Mike May (R-Parker)

Candidates:

• Shelly Tokerud: 2006 SD-30 Democratic nominee from Parker

• Ovieh Agahro: Stockbroker from Parker

Overview: With Republicans outnumbering Democrats in the district 2-1, this isn’t exactly the most-watched primary this year. Tokerud beat Ovieh at the Douglas County Democratic assembly with 68 percent of the vote.

What to look for: Tokerud to win the primary then get mauled by Mike May in November.

45th STATE HOUSE DISTRICT (Republicans)

OPEN SEAT: State Rep. Victor Mitchell (R-Castle Rock) is not seeking re-election

Candidates:

• Mark Sievers: Former Verizon executive and former Teller County GOP chair from Cripple Creek

• Carole Murray: Former Douglas County Clerk and Recorder from Castle Rock

Overview: The two have had a somewhat low-key race since Mitchell announced earlier this year that he wouldn’t seek re-election. Sievers has the top line on the ballot, beating Murray at the HD-45 assembly with 58 percent of the vote. But Murray has name recognition and is outraising Sievers $30,650 to $4,774. Last week, the Colorado Association of Home Builders’ political arm sent out a mailer calling Sievers a “liberal pro-choice trial lawyer”: Murray has denounced the mailer, and it remains to be seen whether the attack will help or hurt Sievers’ chances.

What to look for: Sievers’ name recognition district-wide. Sievers, being from sparsely populated Teller County, has had to introduce himself to a lot more people than Murray, who has held office in populous Douglas County. And he’s had to do it with relatively little money. As Sievers likes to point out, no Teller County resident has been elected to the state legislature since 1930.

48th STATE HOUSE DISTRICT (Republicans)

Incumbent: State Rep. Glenn Vaad (R-Mead)

Candidates:

• Glenn Vaad: State representative and former Weld County commissioner from Mead

• Marc Yingling: Construction business owner from Greeley

Overview: Yingling has hit Vaad from the right, saying the first-term representative isn’t conservative enough for his district. But Vaad, who won with 58 percent of the vote in 2006, has a 3-1 fundraising advantage.

What to look for: Vaad to hold on to his seat.

57th STATE HOUSE DISTRICT (Republicans)

OPEN SEAT: State Rep. Al White (R-Hayden) is term-limited

Candidates:

• Randy Baumgardner: Rancher and CDOT highway maintenance worker from Hot Sulphur Springs

• Dan Korkowski: Code-enforcement officer from Grand Lake

Overview: Insiders give Korkowski the edge in this race, even though Baumgardner’s $13,166 raised so far is double that of Korkowski.

What to look for: Very low voter turnout, as this is the only contested primary race on the ballot.

62nd STATE HOUSE DISTRICT (Democrats)

Incumbent: State Rep. Rafael Gallegos (D-Antonito)

Candidates:

• Rocky White: Physician and health care activist from Alamosa

• Ed Vigil: Costilla County commissioner from Alamosa

Overview: White scored a shocking upset at the HS-62 assembly, walloping both Vigil and Gallegos, the incumbent (Vigil later petitioned on the ballot; Gallegos didn’t). White, a former Republican, co-authored a universal health care plan while serving on Gov. Ritter’s blue-ribbon health care panel in 2007. Vigil has been an advocate for rural areas during the race.

What to look for: White will likely win based on his strong showing in the assembly. But even though the district is safe for the Democrats, the primary winner isn’t out of the woods yet: Gallegos hasn’t ruled out a write-in campaign for the general election.