GOP, Dems vie for Latino votes

With traditionally Republican Colorado now in contention, the ever-increasing Latino population may prove decisive in the 2008 election cycle, with both parties striving to add Hispanic votes to their column.

Recent waves of immigration have made Hispanic-Americans the state's fastest-growing demographic as well as its largest -- and most politically powerful -- minority group. According to U.S. Census Bureau surveys conducted in 2006, the Hispanic population has more than doubled since 1990, with roughly one out of every five Coloradoans and one out of every 10 Colorado voters self-identifying as Latino.

In 2004, Ken Salazar (D-Denver) became Colorado's first Hispanic U.S. Senator, while his brother John Salazar (D-Manassa) became the 3rd Congressional District's representative in the U.S. House.

Proposed federal immigration reform also added controversy to state politics, perhaps most noticeably with U.S. Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-Littleton), who gained national attention for his strong anti-illegal immigration stance. The highly publicized debate has led to an increased politicization and sense of marginalization among many members of the community. When the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials held one of its series of Ya Es Hora! Voter Forums in Denver, they found that nearly all of the randomly selected participants reported having come in contact with some form of discrimination.

"No one disagreed with sense of discrimination some of them had felt," said NALEO Deputy Director of Voter Engagement Evan Bacalao, who was present at the forum. Bacalao noted that the experience of intolerance spread evenly throughout the group, regardless of education, income, and family background. "A lot of them attributed that to the rhetoric used in the immigration debate, they felt they were being scapegoated."

Polly Baca, a former state senator who is currently president and CEO of the Latin American Research and Service Agency -- the Colorado affiliate of the National Council of La Raza -- blamed the language Tancredo employed for the atmosphere of hostility toward Hispanics.

"The anti-immigrant rhetoric became anti-Latino," Baca said, adding that she thinks the lawmaker's rhetoric has pushed many of Colorado's Latinos away from the Republican Party. "It spilled over to those of us who have been here for years."

Tancredo spokesman Tyler Quill Houlton disputed Baca's accusations about the Republican Party's electoral future.

"I think it's a misguided assertion that because Congressman Tancredo is tough on border security that the Republicans will lose votes," Houlton said, noting instances in which "pro-amnesty" politicians were ousted from office.

Although Baca said that many Latinos have come to associate Tancredo with the Republican Party in general, and are largely unaware that he's retiring, she also believes that Democrats have yet to completely "wrap up" Colorado's Hispanic vote.

"Ninety percent of Hispanics voted for President Kennedy, something more like 55 percent supported John Kerry," Baca noted. "I think that you've had a traditional majority of Hispanic voters be Democrats, and I think you'll see that continue. The question is ‘what percentage?'"

Baca alleged that legislation passed in 2006 by the Democratic-held General Assembly requiring those applying for public services to demonstrate their citizenship has hurt the Democratic Party's standing among the state's Hispanics.

Bacalao pointed out that 40 percent of Latino voters have registered since the 2000 elections, indicating that many of them have no long-standing allegiance to any one political party.

"Latinos are not a guaranteed Democratic vote. There is a predilection among Latinos to vote Democratic, historically, but we saw in 2000 and more so in 2004 a massive shift among Latinos to the Republican Party," Bacalao said, mentioning that most of the people who at the Ya Es Hora! Forum said they had no party affiliation. "The Latino vote is really up for grabs."

Those in attendance at the NALEO meeting named the economy, health care, education, the war in Iraq, and immigration as their chief concerns, "roughly in that order" Bacalao said.

Baca said that Latinos have a strong interest in improving their high school dropout rate, which now stands at 50 percent, as well as in such initiatives as universal health insurance and "others that help provide for the working poor."

Colorado Democratic Party Chairwoman Pat Waak also expects Hispanic voters to vote on "pocketbook issues."

"Hispanic voters are not that much different from other voters," Waak said, adding: "Those bread-and-butter issues that concern the average voter are down-the-line represented by us this year."

Waak argued that state Democrats have been successful in working to pay down the debts accumulated in education during the tenure of Republican Gov. Bill Owens and offer voters more opportunities for affordable health care, jobs and lower gas prices.

"I think the Republicans have failed people in this state as everywhere else in the country," Waak said. "I think all voters in this state can see the difference between the state legislature, the governor's office and what we've done so far and what they've seen on the Republican side."

Waak cited recent Democratic efforts in improving voter turnout in areas of southern Colorado with large Latino populations, particularly through voter registration drives and community events, as evidence of her party's interest in reaching out to the Hispanic electorate. She also defended the General Assembly initiatives passed in 2006, disagreeing with Baca -- whom she calls "a friend" -- that most Hispanics view the legislation unfavorably.

Colorado Republican Party Chairman Dick Wadhams, while agreeing that Hispanics differ little from other voters, believes that the Republicans better represent the interests of most Latinos - particularly U.S. Senate candidate Bob Schaffer, whose campaign Wadhams heads.

"[Latino voters] are concerned about national security, they're concerned about energy prices, and they're concerned about taxes. Many Hispanics are small business owners, and want lower taxes on small businesses," Wadhams said, stressing Democratic Senate candidate Mark Udall's record on taxes and resistance to domestic petroleum development, including of Colorado's own oil shale deposits. Wadhams also believes that social issues such as abortion and gay marriage will draw Hispanics to the Republican ticket.

Wadhams also argued that Republicans are better-equipped to address the education issue.

"The current education system has failed everyone, but this is an area where it has particularly damaged Hispanics," Wadhams said, blaming the high drop-out rates on the shortcomings of the Democratic-aligned teachers unions and calling for "more school choice, giving Latino families more options in deciding where their children go to school" through vouchers and charter schools.

Wadhams said that Tancredo's impact come November will be negligible, given that he is not on the ballot.

However, Kenneth Bickers, chairman of the political science department at the University of Colorado at Boulder, anticipates that Tancredo's rhetoric will continue to echo through the upcoming election.

"It wouldn't surprise me if there would be some effect on the '08 election cycle, because those positions were articulated in a very raw sort of way," Bickers said, though adding that he considers it unlikely that Tancredo will have much of a political legacy beyond this year.

Besides the immigration issue, Bickers agreed with Waak and Wadhams that Hispanics largely resemble other voters in their concerns about the state of the economy and suggests that they most likely have a greater interest in housing issues, noting figures that indicate Hispanics have been disproportionately affected by the subprime mortgage crisis.

"The only part that I see as being unique to Hispanics is the question of immigration policies, because there are a large number of Hispanic families with ties to Mexico and other Latin American countries. It's much more important in the Hispanic community than anywhere else."

Bickers believes Latinos' low graduation rates correspond to their relatively low voter turnout rates, as high school and college graduates are more likely to vote than those who never receive their diploma. But for Bickers, this can give Hispanics more power rather than less.

"Whenever rates are very low, there is greater upside potential," Bickers said. "Their impact is smaller than it otherwise might be, but also there's a greater potential for Hispanic voters to play a role if that turnout can be increased in any given election."